US Home Price Insights –  November 2024

Through September 2024 With Forecasts Through September 2025 

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in September 2024 compared with September 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increaed by .02% in September 2024 compared with August 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

Forecast Prices Nationally

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will drop by -0.1% from September 2024 to October 2024 and increase by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis from September 2024 to September 2025.

US Home Price Gains Continue to Slip in September

U.S. home price growth continued to cool, slowing to a 3.4% year-over-year in September. Compared with the month prior, home prices rebounded to post a very slight uptick (0.02%) following months of modest monthly declines. Taken together, home price levels have been relatively flat since late summer.

Besides the uncertainty regarding the U.S. election and mortgage rate volatility, the mixed signals around the current state of the U.S. economy may be dampening demand and price appreciation. According to the latest numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added just 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years. On the other hand, the most recent consumer spending data showed solid continued spending and an upbeat consumer outlook.

“Like much of the housing market at the moment, home prices remained relatively flat coming into the fall. Despite some improved affordability from lower mortgage rates during August, homebuyers mostly kept on the sidelines and decided to wait out the mortgage rate drop for a potentially better opportunity next year, when the current volatility, uncertainty surrounding the election’s outcome, and the impact on longer-term rates may be slightly clearer. And while the mortgage rate and economic outlook is full of questions, home prices are likely to maintain their leveled path until early next year when buyers return to the housing market.”

– Dr. Selma Hepp

Chief Economist for CoreLogic

HPI National and State Maps – September 2024 

Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in September. One state posted an annual home price decline. The states with the highest increases year over year were Rhode Island (9%) and New Jersey (up by 8.6%).

HPI Top 10 Metros Change

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in August, with  Miami posting the highest gain at 6.8% year over year.

Figure 3: Year-over-year home price changes by select metro areas, September 2024

Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline 

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Provo-Orem, UT (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months.  Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Rowsell, GA;  Salt Lake City, UT;  Gainesville, FL;   and Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL; (70%-plus probability)  are also at very high risk of declines in home prices over the next 12 months.

Summary 

CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes. 

CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments. 

Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available. 

Methodology 

The CoreLogic HPI^™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. 

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts^™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index. 

About Market Risk Indicator 

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.  

Source: CoreLogic 

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About CoreLogic 

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com. 

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